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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:23 pm 
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niman wrote:
WHO comments on Nov 1:

On 28 October 2009, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine informed WHO, through its Country Office in Ukraine, about an unusually high level of activity of acute respiratory illness in the western part of the country, associated with an increased number of hospital admissions and fatalities.

On 30 October 2009, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine announced the confirmation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection by RT-PCR in eleven out of 30 samples obtained from patients presenting with acute respiratory illness in two of the most affected regions. Tests were performed in two laboratories in Kyiv, including the National Influenza Centre. Confirmatory tests will be performed at one of the WHO Collaborating Centres for Influenza.

The situation is quickly changing with increasingly high levels of acute respiratory illness (ARI)/Influenza-like-illness (ILI) activity being observed in Ternopil, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Chernivtsi regions. The higher levels of transmission in these regions corresponds to an increased number of hospital admissions and fatalities associated with severe manifestations of acute respiratory illness.

As of 30 October 2009, over 2,300 individuals have been admitted to hospital, including over 1,100 children. One hundred and thirty one (131) cases have required intensive care, including 32 children. As of 31 October 2009, a total of 38 fatalities associated with severe manifestations of ARI have been registered. Preliminary epidemiological data analysis indicates that severe cases and deaths primarily occur among previously healthy young adults aged 20 – 50 years. Fatal and severe cases are reported to have sought medical attention 5 to 7 days after onset of symptoms.

International experience of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic to date, especially from the Southern Hemisphere, has shown that poor clinical outcomes are associated with delays in seeking health care and limited access to supportive care. In addition, this virus has also shown its ability to cause rapidly progressive overwhelming lung disease which is very difficult to treat.

Public health measures recommended by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine across the entire country include: social distancing (school closures and cancellation of mass gatherings); enhancement of surveillance activities; increased respiratory hygiene; and continuation of the vaccination campaign against seasonal influenza targeting at risk groups.

The Government of the Ukraine has activated coordination mechanisms to respond to the rapidly evolving situation, including the harmonization of response plans across all administrative levels.

In response to the request from the Minister of Health of Ukraine, WHO is deploying a multi-disciplinary team of experts to assist national authorities in mitigating the impact of the pandemic. The team comprises of the following expertise: health emergencies coordination, case management, epidemiology, laboratory diagnostics, logistics, and media/risk communications.

As per WHO's communication in May 2009, there is no rationale for travel restrictions because such measures will not prevent the spread of the disease.

Travellers can protect themselves and others by following simple recommendations aimed at preventing the spread of infection such as attention to respiratory hygiene. Individuals who are ill should delay travel plans and returning travellers who fall ill should seek appropriate medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit the spread of many communicable diseases and not only the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_01/en/index.html


This is really old. I guess there is nothing new. SOS


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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:24 pm 
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[ Fair Use: For Educational / Research / Discussion Purposes Only ]
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCr ... USL7179665
Sat Nov 7, 2009 10:12am EST, Reuters

Slovakia tightens border with flu-hit Ukraine

BRATISLAVA, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Slovakia said on Saturday it would close all but one road border crossing with Ukraine on Sunday because of Ukraine's flu epidemic.

Vysne Nemecke, the biggest checkpoint, will be the only one to stay open.

"The reason is the continuing worsening of the epidemic situation in Ukraine," Interior Minister Robert Kalinak told journalists. "This is intended to minimize any eventual outbreak of the disease."

Kalinak said the EU member state's decision was temporary and aimed to protect the bloc.

Doctors and hygienists will be stationed at the border to monitor passengers and have the powers to bar anyone suspected of being infected from entering the country.

Ukraine could delay a January presidential election until May next year because of its outbreak of H1N1 flu, which has killed more than 100 in recent weeks and infected more than 750,000
[ID:nL695938]. (Reporting by Martin Santa; editing by Andrew Roche)


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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:27 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:30 pm 
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Posts: 164
niman wrote:
Cascadians wrote:
But why would they all ignore science so blatantly? It makes them look like fools and arouses suspicion. While it is true that most of the world's population is scientifically illiterate, still some glaring inconsistencies are becoming apparent and that only feeds into the whackadoodlery.

If there was honesty, transparency, intelligence and adherence to science, the world would not be wasting so much time and lives would be saved.

On the one hand you have innumerable WHO and CDC articles stating emphatically for many weeks now that H1N1 is the only global influenza circulating, and then you have these 'official' government fools directly contradicting that.

Actually, the fools are everywhere. In the US they are school administrators who maintain that the 20-50% absenteeism is due to a "perfect storm" of diseases that includes swine flu, but involves other etiologies, including seasonal flu.

It is a common misunderstanding among my friends that there are more flus circulating than swine flu. I have seen "health professionals", esp. govt. health officials at the state level, give the same misinformation and fail to mention that if you have the flu, you have the swine flu.

Heck, I even heard Sanja Gupta on Larry King this week insist to a mother whose child died of the flu that it was probably a secondary infection of some kind that killed her (like what is common in seasonal flu). He seemed completely unaware that this flu often kills due to viral pnuemonia; i.e. the virus getting deep into the lungs and turning it to a bloody pulp.

If "professionals" in the US get it wrong, how can we expect any different from Eastern Europe??


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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:33 pm 
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Here's a better map of swine flu in Europe

http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/bulletin_v2.cgi


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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:38 pm 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
ms4920 wrote:
niman wrote:
WHO comments on Nov 1:

On 28 October 2009, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine informed WHO, through its Country Office in Ukraine, about an unusually high level of activity of acute respiratory illness in the western part of the country, associated with an increased number of hospital admissions and fatalities.

On 30 October 2009, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine announced the confirmation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection by RT-PCR in eleven out of 30 samples obtained from patients presenting with acute respiratory illness in two of the most affected regions. Tests were performed in two laboratories in Kyiv, including the National Influenza Centre. Confirmatory tests will be performed at one of the WHO Collaborating Centres for Influenza.

The situation is quickly changing with increasingly high levels of acute respiratory illness (ARI)/Influenza-like-illness (ILI) activity being observed in Ternopil, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Chernivtsi regions. The higher levels of transmission in these regions corresponds to an increased number of hospital admissions and fatalities associated with severe manifestations of acute respiratory illness.

As of 30 October 2009, over 2,300 individuals have been admitted to hospital, including over 1,100 children. One hundred and thirty one (131) cases have required intensive care, including 32 children. As of 31 October 2009, a total of 38 fatalities associated with severe manifestations of ARI have been registered. Preliminary epidemiological data analysis indicates that severe cases and deaths primarily occur among previously healthy young adults aged 20 – 50 years. Fatal and severe cases are reported to have sought medical attention 5 to 7 days after onset of symptoms.

International experience of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic to date, especially from the Southern Hemisphere, has shown that poor clinical outcomes are associated with delays in seeking health care and limited access to supportive care. In addition, this virus has also shown its ability to cause rapidly progressive overwhelming lung disease which is very difficult to treat.

Public health measures recommended by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine across the entire country include: social distancing (school closures and cancellation of mass gatherings); enhancement of surveillance activities; increased respiratory hygiene; and continuation of the vaccination campaign against seasonal influenza targeting at risk groups.

The Government of the Ukraine has activated coordination mechanisms to respond to the rapidly evolving situation, including the harmonization of response plans across all administrative levels.

In response to the request from the Minister of Health of Ukraine, WHO is deploying a multi-disciplinary team of experts to assist national authorities in mitigating the impact of the pandemic. The team comprises of the following expertise: health emergencies coordination, case management, epidemiology, laboratory diagnostics, logistics, and media/risk communications.

As per WHO's communication in May 2009, there is no rationale for travel restrictions because such measures will not prevent the spread of the disease.

Travellers can protect themselves and others by following simple recommendations aimed at preventing the spread of infection such as attention to respiratory hygiene. Individuals who are ill should delay travel plans and returning travellers who fall ill should seek appropriate medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit the spread of many communicable diseases and not only the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_01/en/index.html


This is really old. I guess there is nothing new. SOS

As noted, it is from Nov 1.

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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:58 pm 
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[ Fair Use: For Educational / Research / Discussion Purposes Only ]
http://pf11-trends-and-issues.blogspot. ... llion.html
2009-11-06

Ukraine Expected to Surpass 1 Million Infections in Only 10 Days; the U.S. took 10 weeks.

A day in the Ukraine is like a week in the United States . . .
for Pandemic Influenza spread, that is.

On October 29, the Ukraine officially reported an uptick in Influenza-like-Illness (ILI) and a surge in hospitalisation. Concomitant deaths were reported from hemorrhagic pneumonia and four doctors were soon included in the fatality pool. The situation was recognised and immediate action was taken. Very early in the process, a nationwide alert was issued and the situation came under central management. In mere days, the healthcare infrastructure was stressed and supplies were exhausted. Resources have been redirected and escalations continue. Citizens are cutting their own clothing to make masks.

Tommorow will mark 10 days since that spark.

Based on the most recent daily case increases trending upward from 32% to 37%, we expect the Ukraine to surpass one million reported infections by Saturday afternoon, November 7, 2009. If the reporting trend continues with the weekend and the rates hold, just under 1.2 million cases will be cataloged. We cannot speculate if a report will be made publicly available on Saturday.

The official reports from the United States indicated that 1 million infections were reached in late June 2009, 10 weeks after the initial sparks of PF11 began to ignite the populations and burn through the major cities.

The Ukraine progression defines a new method for PF11. In the early phases of any catalyst event, all statistics are suspect, but the trending is often useful. Official numbers, upon some minor calculations, demonstrate that the daily increase in hospitalisation and deaths is rapidly climbing. Yesterday the increase in daily hospitalisations was 20% and today the increase is 37%, almost a doubling in day-to-day velocity. Yesterday the increase in deaths was 17% and today the increase is 42%, more than a doubling in day-to-day velocity.

Data reporting cut-offs are always at issue in these early inflows, but over the next two weeks an exacting pattern will be defined. Researchers must be given access to the raw data to determine causality and vectoring. A significant library of samples has been received and sequenced in a prestigious European coordinating laboratory. No data at this time has been released.

Timeliness is essential when a virus has marched to 1 million suspect cases in only 10 days in one country of less than 50 million people. 1 of 50 ill across 10 days. Clinical and environmental data matching the sequences will be critical to deduce and weight the parameters driving this regional escalation. Those who will writeoff these flashpoints as medical infrastructure failures and sub-standard housing problems endemic to the third world are not intellectual Titans. A pandemic is by definition unpredictable in phase shift timing and degree. To discount this Ukrainian surge in suffering to poverty is simply academically irresponsible in a pandemic era. These data points requested, if made public today, may save the lives of many in the area and exponentially more in the coming months around the globe.

The Ukraine is bordered by the countries of Russia, Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova. The southern area of the Ukraine is involved in several bird migration routes being bordered by the Black Sea. Sequence examination of late summer specimens from these bordering areas and Eastern Europe demonstrates a trend equal to the United States with a significant Hydra Effect and substantial Antigenic Diversity delivered via Influenza Flux. US sequences certainly match and even advance the polymorphisms in Eastern Europe and these border nations.

Our studies clearly demonstrate a one to three week lag at maximum in transport time and acquistion into new geographic areas of trait-enhancing genetic material within ΣPF11. The stage is already set with similar sequences existing in most parts of the world. 225E has continued to penetrate in dozens of nations and is a factor in our present working hypothesis for this Ukraine spark.

If the Ukraine has variant genetic specimens, the information is primary to world health. Singapore was recently courageous enough to release 600 sequences that widely demonstrate movement in the reservoir. Only an immediate evaluation of the full dataset of Ukrainian sequences and matched clinical information will provide countries the opportunity to prepare if this incident does mark an inflection point or catalyst event in the pandemic.

Is the US only one cold winter week from the situation today in the Ukraine? Is the base of Pandemic 2.0 now widening in countries that have some point of susceptability? If so, the landing strips are presently in place for these new polymorphisms to land on the existing PF11 strains in every basic geographic area of the world.

We may all be one week from seeing a million new cases in our homelands or, worse yet, watching 2% of our population stricken in only 10 days. You do the math for your nation and then decide if we need data transparency and academic honesty.

For additional background on the clinical and epidemiological observational facts concerning Pandemic Influenza H1N1, please refer to the Table of Contents for PF11 Trends & Issues, Mid-Term.


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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:18 pm 
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ms4920 wrote:
You are the only one that has all the answers. My MD is stupid and does not have a degree. He went to USC but he is not a bright man. Not everything is SWINE FLU


just signed up to give a comment on this posting:

looking at the number of e.g. the British Columbia CDD (page # 5) it does not look like a perfect storm:

http://www.bccdc.ca/NR/rdonlyres/B27627 ... 0_0910.pdf

ERRATUM: The link was outdated. here is week nr 43. "other viruses" declining. page nr. 5

http://www.bccdc.ca/NR/rdonlyres/27310F ... 3_0910.pdf


Last edited by poppi09 on Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:28 pm 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
ms4920 wrote:
You are the only one that has all the answers. My MD is stupid and does not have a degree. He went to USC but he is not a bright man. Not everything is SWINE FLU

The swine flu situation really couldn't be clearer. I have read report after report from school officials in the US citing seasonal flu as a contributor to the absenteeism, when in fact the level of seasonal flu was less than 1 % and going down. They all make the same ridiculous statements about "perfect storms" leading to 20-30% abstenteeism. They acknkoewedge swine flu, but then throw in a couple more, like stomach flu, colds, allergies, or bronchitis, all of which match swine flu symptoms.

I can also speak from personal experience. My high school aged daughter was PCR confirmed, as was I. My middle school aged daughter also was infected but wasn't tested because the diagnosis was obvious and she was prescribed Tamiflu. Same for my wife who was prescribed Tamiflu over the phone. However, we all had different combinations of symptoms which could easily be called any of the above misdaignosis.

The sequence of events assocaited with my daughter in high school was most revealing. Her school already had had two waves. At the start of the school year a VERY high percentage of students had a headache, sore throat, and runny nose but no fever. Consequently they stayed in school and didn't get tested. My daughter plays soccer and the team was so sick that practice has cancelled, which has NEVER happened previously. Most got better and then the second wave struck. This time many also had fever and many also had nausea and vomitting, leading to high absenteeism and visits to Drs. The school then came out with a notice about students testing positive for influenza A (i.e. swine flu). A week later another notice came out saying that H1N1 had been confirmed in all six schools (high school, middle school, and 4 elementary). The announcement was no surprise because absenteeism was in double didgits and one day the school nurse was sending home stidents with fever at a rate of 5 per hour.

Shortly therafter my daughter developed a cough. She went to school but after a few days woke up and said she was too sick to go to school. She slept in for a few hours and when she woke up she had a fever of 101.1. We called the Dr and took her in that afternoon. She told the nurse that in addition to the cough and fever she felt weak and tired, had chills, and had a headache. I thought it was pretty obvious that she had swine flu.

When the Dr came in he said she had a "possible case" of swine flu. I asked why he only thought she was "possible" in view of her symptoms, absenteeism, and confirmed H1N1 at her school. He responded by saying that he had done PCR on 10 patients in a row who had "classical swine flu symptoms" and all tested NEGATIVE indicating they just had URI. I said his office had a swabbing problem, which wasn't well received. He did have the nurse take a swab, but wouldn't prescribe Tamiflu. He did say to call if her symptoms worsened.

The next morning her temp went up to 103.1. She was also light headed and dizzy even though we had started her on Tamiflu as soon as we returned from the Dr a day earlier (using Tamiflu we had ontained previously). We called to update the Dr and state that we were not confortable without Tamiflu treatment, which was then called in by the Dr.

That afternoon I went to my daughter's soccer game while she rested (I keep the book on the team). the other parent who volunteered for that game was an MD and she was coughing. I commented on the cough and asked her what she thought she had. She said she had the same thing her daughter had. I asked if she had done any testing of patients and she said she had positives in her patients and staff. I then asked why she didn't think she had swine flu and she thought symptoms lasted longer than a couple of days. I noted that many are only sick for a few days and said she probably had swine flu. I asked if she was taking anything and she admited that she and her daughter were on tamiflu. I then mentioned the 10 "negatives" on patients with "classical swine flu symptoms" and she immediatley said they weren't swabbing correctly. For a proper nasopharygeal swab, the swab has to go deep and into the cavity at the back of the nose.

After the game I developed a dry cough. I didn't think much of it until the next day, when the cough was deeper and I couldn't stop. I would cough 10 times in a row, stop for a minute, and then start over. After doing this for several hours, I started Tamiflu, even though the cough was my only symptom. That night I developed a low grade fever (below 100), had chills, night sweats, and felt much better in the morning. I still had the low grade fever when I woke up, but it was gone in an hour. My cough improved and I saw the Dr the next day even though I felt much better (I really just wanted to refill by Tamiflu stock). I was also swabbed, but expected to be negative since I had already been on tamiflu for 3 days by the time the swab was taken.

Much to my surprise, my daughter and I both tested positive for H1N1. Prior to developing a fever, she would have been a "bronchitis" patient. For me, other than the cough, all other symptoms were present for less than 8 hours. Outside of the very short time I would have been a bronchitis patient also.

My younger daughter then devloped a cough and fever and missed three days of school. She would have been the one most likely to be diagnosed as swine flu. My wife then developed the cough, sore throat and headache. She never had a fever and was diagnosed as swine flu over the phone, because of the three other cases in the house.

A month later my older daughter and I developed symptoms again, She had a cough, sore throat, and ear ache. I had a cough, horrible headache for two days, fatigue, and chills, but no fever. I was diagnosed as swine flu but not retested - the testing center was overwhelmed and asked MD's NOT to send samples from non-hospitalized patients.

The above detail provides some insight into the variety of symptoms within one household (which probably involved the same virus). The MD who diagnosed my older daughter as "possible swine flu" was heavily influenced by bad test result. The 10 patients had swine flu but were told they were PCR negative and had URI (of unknown etiology).

Bottom line is simple. In areas where swine flu is rampant, there will be MANY different presentations of the same virus. The school outbreaks with double digits absenteeism have widespread H1N1. Some will have no fever and the population will present with a range of symptoms, but the symptoms are NOT due to a perfect storm of converging etiologies, as indicated by school administrators.

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Last edited by niman on Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:38 pm 
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Dr Niman, your personal story shows a salient fact that many others are observing:

Ppl are getting H1N1 more than 1x. Some have experienced swine flu several times since last spring.

They are asking, "Why am I now not immune? How many times can I get this flu?"


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