Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Doesn't look like it. The Ukrainians seriously need a lucky break

Thank you guys for the support, truly speaking, our infrastructure is aging and meltdowns like Lugansk hospital accident become more and more common at ex-Soviet countries like Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine

previous

January 18, 2010
4 275 410 Influenza/ARI
254 551 Hospitalized
996 Dead
http://www.moz.gov.ua/ua/main/press/?docID=14629

January 19, 2010
4 324 282 Influenza/ARI
256 941 Hospitalized
1005 Dead

Kyiv City - Weather forecast.
Its already January 20 12:15 am in Kyiv City.

Ministry of Health - Ukraine


http://www.moz.gov.ua/ua/main/press/?docID=14641

4 Oblasts at epidemic level
4 at near-epidemic level
19 below epidemic level

Euroflu [weekly] ARI consultations per 100,000 population. Week 01-2010

http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2010&week=1&region=Ukraine&type=c

I would like to point out that the increase 996 to 1005 deaths may impress some by the extra digit,
but today deaths figure is not especially impressive as compared with recent daily figures.

On the other hand, both the EuroFlu ARI weekly consultations and the Ministry of Health number of oblast below epidemic threshold
apparently does agree in the Influenza/ARI “activity” experienced a marked decrease trend, at least as per the mentioned data sources.
--------
I guess there are two basic questions we may ask about any peak we may wish to call a "wave":
1.How & why does it start and 2.how & why does it stop? [maybe the harder one]

1. I tend see rising phase of an outbreak on immunologically naive population has a rather straighforward understanting.
The propagation dynamics involves rather standard epidemiological variables (such as a reproduction time).
2. In contrast, I see the "wave" decreasing mechanisms as probably more involved question.
It was hypothized earlier on this thread that the second Ukrainian "peak" was in part "interrupted" by
school closing and events related to new year's and Ortodox Christmas hollydays (Thuesday 7 January, this year)
(combined with epidemic control measures also undertaken by local competent authorithies).
Altough I posted some of the related graphics, the former discussion was mainly led by gsgs, Denis, and andre10056.
--> See pages 274 and 278 to aceess mentioned posts:
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2474&start=2730
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2474&start=2770

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01201 ... _1005.html

On the epidemiological side, there also some aditional remarks regarding the historical data.

As noticed earlier on this thread, Euroflu Ukraine ARI consultations historical data shows an annual “indent”,
further identified as probable epidemiological signature of new year’s and Ortodox Church Cristmas holidays.
This “indent” is also visible visible on 2008/09 season, shown on previous Euroflu Week-01-2010 graphic above.


Figure - Euroflu ARI consultations per 100,000 population - Historical data. Arrows indicate the annual “indent” or “notch” discussed above.

CREDITS REMINDER: We have to give credit to whom credit is due. gsgs first identified the
Ukraine the “indent”, Andre10056 discussed the holidays impact on flu and Denis latter linked up their correlation.
My contribution was mostly the graphic job to illustrate previous discussion points!

Really good point about the Holiday! The dip is clearly seen every year.