situation on Ukraine

neuromedia · **Joined:** Wed Aug 26, 2009 4:15 pm **Posts:** 580

Kyiv - Weather forecast
[Fahrenheit + Centigrade]

Attachment:

Ukraine_Kiev_Weather_Dec_29.jpg [ 27.15 KiB | Viewed 667 times ]

[NOTE: Cold weather - Impact on Energy burning up]
"[...] the December [Ukrainian gas] bill, due before Jan 11, was expected to soar
to $1 billion from $770 million in November due to low temperatures.[...]
http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/55989/

niman · **Posted:** Tue Dec 29, 2009 4:21 pm

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12290 ... e_675.html

Rick · **Joined:** Sun Nov 22, 2009 2:40 am **Posts:** 575

Rick wrote:

And more GOOD NEWS! It looks like the little bump in ILI/Hospitalizations from the blinding cold snap is over. When the Ukranian gov't flunkie came in on Monday, and saw Sat, Sun, and Monday's numbers, she realized he had overestimated it. And today's number, designed to be half way to tomorrow's expected number, is the lowest in a month. I've taken the liberty of predicting tomorrow's numbers the Ukranian flunkie will be trying to match, very predictable. What it says is that the Ukraine ILI illnesses are about to drop like a rock, and will be the lowest it's been since the summer low in about 14 days. It' about to catch up with that shrinking tail of it's Gaussian Normal Distribution...

Ah hem...

The GOOD NEWS is that everything across the board is radically down, except deaths, lagging by 2-3 weeks as expected.

Yes!!!

Rick · **Joined:** Sun Nov 22, 2009 2:40 am **Posts:** 575

andre10056 wrote:

Rick wrote,

Mean deaths always follows mean symptoms (ILI) by around 2-3 weeks. SADLY, it'll probably keep going up for another week or more.

One of many problems I have with your alleged "predictive models" is that it seems that there's absolutely nothing mathematical about your predictions

Other than the actual data and an understanding of elementary arithmetic, like counting to 21, and the most elementary understanding of the Calculus.

Other than that. So far, just about the only person here that ever uses math.

andre10056 wrote:

I'm not saying that the death rate won't go down (it's a sure bet that it will at some point) but there seems to be nothing supporting your quoted statement except for the common sense reality that deaths will ultimately decline as rates of infection decline (duh!).

Nothing supporting it other than deaths has always lagged symptoms by 2-3 weeks, both in 1918 and now, and petty details like the CDC and WHO saying so.

Other than that.

Pandora · **Joined:** Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:43 pm **Posts:** 399

Dr. Niman, this is a fascinating development. It will be interesting to see if there is more news that comes out this week concerning these new deaths.

Rick, my concern is whether the present continuous curves become discontinuous at some point in time.

Rick · **Joined:** Sun Nov 22, 2009 2:40 am **Posts:** 575

Pandora wrote:

Dr. Niman, this is a fascinating development.

Speaks for itself.

Rick · **Joined:** Sun Nov 22, 2009 2:40 am **Posts:** 575

Pandora wrote:

Rick, my concern is whether the present continuous curves become discontinuous at some point in time.

The numbers are too large, all those overlapping Gaussian Normal Distributions spreading out to infinity. There's always a slight ramping up before it goes vertical. If you wait for it to go vertical, you are already infected.

Pandora · **Joined:** Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:43 pm **Posts:** 399

Yeah, that's true enough.

Ron · **Posted:** Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:31 pm

neuromedia wrote:

Ron wrote:

Still Ukraine, with less than 7% of the European population, should stand for approx.1/3 of the total* flu related deaths in Europe...Hmmm.
(*Total by WHO,ECDC)

Why not? An influenza pandemic in not quite a predictable and “well behaved” event!
It is not a reasonable tendency to any government to overestimate the pH1N1 impact on his own country, as you apparently assume in Ukraine case.

Oh,I didn´t assume much,did I? Merely pin-pointed a very strange Ukrainian death toll compared to all the other 43 European Countries put together. With present pace, Ukraine will soon count for half the flu-related deaths in Europe, it seems.

If the freezing cold continues over Europe(I read -14°C here now) there will be harsh conditions for the Ukrainians, esp.if their government fails to pay the existing Russian gas bill.

I sure hope that IMF releases the emergency loan or that EU and USAID keeps up what they have done for years now.
http://www.icps.kiev.ua/eng/key_issues/foreign_aid.html

Quote:

September 23, 2009
ENPI: Work in Progress
Since 2005, the European Union’s relations with its neighbours have been in constant evolution, driven by major developments both within the bloc and in its neighbours. The 2004 enlargement and the “colour revolutions” of Georgia and Ukraine have created a need for new priorities, new aid, and a new paradigm. In Ukraine, the Orange Revolution and the election of Viktor Yushchenko as President signalled the beginning of a more democratic politics in the country and revived its accession bid, which, despite being an official priority since 1993, had essentially been dormant. Indeed, despite having received billions in foreign aid, Ukraine has not undergone major sectoral or institutional reform since independence in 1991.

http://www.usaid.gov/locations/europe_e ... index.html

Quote:

Ukraine plays a key role in U.S. foreign policy objectives due to its strategic position between Europe and Eurasia and its importance for regional stability. The U.S. is committed to helping Ukraine achieve social and economic security, and supports its goal of joining NATO and the European Union (EU). Since 1992, USAID has devoted more than $1.6 billion to Ukraine. Today, USAID programs primarily focus on good governance, economic growth, strengthened health services, and anti-corruption

Pandora · **Joined:** Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:43 pm **Posts:** 399

Off-topic (or rather, on-topic)...

Does anyone have a better understanding yet of precisely why Ukraine has been hit so hard? It seems odd to me that they seem to have taken the brunt of this. I've heard ideas that it may be nutrition-related, or life-style related.

Does anyone yet really have a better factual idea why they have suffered more than other regions in the world?

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