littlebird wrote:
What's happening in Ukraine, sounds like what might happen if this virus were able to really put itself OUT there, as easily as seasonal flu does.
It's like seeing sixteen army ants in your path, and stomping everyone of them victoriously.... NO problem!
"These Army Ants are NOT very virulent. They MUST not be the same kind of army ants we've heard about in history... they just do not seem to be the killers that some people say they are." But when you find yourself caught in the middle of a swarm of millions of them, you're in trouble.
The Ants are still ants. They haven't genetically been altered.
Why did THIS person die? And why did THIS person not?
they were all bitten by the same kind of ants....

We know, because we found the same ants on them both.
(It's as clear as the writing on the wall to me.) It's the ONLY thing that makes it all make sense.
Whatever change is required to make this virus spread as easily as seasonal flu, and puts the virus out in greater quantities than it has been doing, will be the change that shakes this Nation to its knees.
Speaking of knee shaking, the current pandemic can be explained simply on the basis of viral load (and associated selection).
I am certain I have been infected at least twice (first of two was PCR confirmed), and there have been MANY media and anectdotal reports of re-infections (which is also expained by viral load).
Initially, most of the population is naive. As a result, there can be infections involving low viral loads. The patient is infected with a samll amount of virus and has mild symptoms and recovers. However, since the level of virus was low, the immune reponse was relatively weak, just enough to clear the virus.
Soon many have a low level of immunity, so there is selection for infections involving a higher viral load. As aresult, te level of virus per indiidual increase to overcome the low level. Those with a low level of immunity again get infected and again the infection is mild, but some are infected by the higher level and do not have the protective antibody and end up with more severe disease, which is why more are ending up in the hospital and more are getting hemorrhagic symptoms and dying.
This cycle will get repeated again in the next wave, which will increase the frequncy of severe cases and deaths and all of this can be done without genetic change - all that is required is a higher concentration of virus in circulation.