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PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:37 pm 
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WHO has released its January 7 update

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/si ... eports/en/

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:40 pm 
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SUMMARY
· Reported case incidence continues to fluctuate in Guinea, with no identifiable downward trend. Ebola virus disease (EVD) continues to spread geographically within the country, with the prefecture of Fria reporting 2 confirmed cases for the first time. Case incidence has declined to low levels in Liberia. There are signs that incidence has levelled off in Sierra Leone, although transmission remains intense in the west of the country.
· The UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER) set twin targets of isolating and treating 100% of EVD cases, and conducting 100% of burials safely and with dignity by 1 January, 2015, in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
· Each of the intense-transmission countries has sufficient capacity to isolate and treat patients, with more than 2 treatment beds per reported confirmed and probable case. However, the uneven geographical distribution of beds and cases, and the under-reporting of cases, means that the UNMEER target of isolating and treating 100% of EVD cases is still not met in some areas. An increasing emphasis will be put on the rapid deployment of smaller treatment facilities to ensure that capacity is matched with demand in each area.
· Similarly, each country has sufficient capacity to bury all people known to have died from EVD, though the under-reporting of deaths means that the UNMEER target of 100% safe burial was not met.
· In addition to the two UNMMER targets, there are several other crucial aspects of the response, including rigorous contact tracing, access to laboratory services, and community engagement.
· Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone report that more than 90% of registered contacts are monitored, though the number of contacts traced per EVD case remains lower than expected in many districts. In areas where transmission has been driven down to low levels, rigorous contact tracing will be essential to break chains of transmission.
· There are currently 23 laboratories providing case-confirmation services in the three intense-transmission countries. Five more laboratories are planned in order to meet demand.
· Case fatality among hospitalized patients (calculated from all hospitalized patients with a reported definitive outcome) is approximately 60% in the three intense-transmission countries.
· A total of 820 health-care worker infections have been reported in the intense-transmission countries; there have been 488 deaths.
· Many elements of the response to the EVD outbreak, from safe burials to contact tracing, rely on actively engaging affected communities to take ownership of the response. UNICEF leads the community engagement arm of the EVD response. At present, 33 of 38 (87%) of districts in Guinea, 100% of districts in Liberia, and 57% (8 of 14) of districts in Sierra Leone have systems in place to monitor community engagement activities.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:41 pm 
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1. COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION
· There have been in excess of 20 000 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (table 1), with more than 8000 deaths (deaths are under-reported).
· A stratified analysis of cumulative confirmed and probable cases indicates that the number of cases in males and females is about the same (table 2). Compared with children (people aged 14 years and under), people aged 15 to 44 are three times more likely to be affected (33 reported cases per 100 000 population, compared with 98 per 100 000 population). People aged 45 and over (125 reported cases per 100 000 population) are almost four times more likely to be affected than are children.
· There have been 26 reported confirmed and probable cases per 100 000 population in Guinea, 206 cases per 100 000 population in Liberia, and 170 cases per 100 000 population in Sierra Leone.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:42 pm 
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GUINEA
· 74 confirmed cases were reported in the 7 days to 4 January 2015 (figure 1). There is no discernible upward or downward trend. However, EVD continues to spread geographically, with the western prefecture of Fria reporting confirmed cases for the first time (figure 4). 19 districts have reported a confirmed or probable case in the 21 days to 4 January.
· Conakry is the worst-affected district, followed by the nearby district of Dubreka, with 24 and 16 new confirmed cases, respectively, in the week to 4 January. The eastern district of Lola, which borders Côte d’Ivoire, reported 12 new confirmed cases.
· Six districts that have previously reported Ebola cases did not report any confirmed or probable cases in the 21 days to 4 January.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:43 pm 
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LIBERIA
· Case incidence has declined from a peak of over 300 new confirmed cases per week in August and September to 8 new confirmed cases and 40 probable cases in the 5 days to 2 January, 2015 (figure 2).
· The district of Montserrado, which includes the capital Monrovia, continues to account for most cases in the country, with 6 confirmed and 33 probable cases reported in the 5 days to 2 January.
· Twelve of 15 districts in Liberia did not report any confirmed cases during the 5 days to 2 January.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:43 pm 
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SIERRA LEONE
· There are signs that case incidence may have levelled off in Sierra Leone, although with 248 new confirmed cases reported in the week to 4 January 2015, it remains by far the worst-affected country at present.
· The west of the country remains the area of most intense transmission. The capital, Freetown, reported 93 new confirmed cases, and the neighbouring districts of Port Loko and Western Rural reported 41 and 50 new confirmed cases, respectively, in the 7 days to 4 January. A total of 11 out of 14 districts reported new confirmed cases in the latest reporting period.
· In the east of the country, on the border with Guinea, the district of Kono reported 32 confirmed cases during the reporting period, and has reported 84 confirmed cases in the past 21 days.

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