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PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:30 pm 

Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:27 pm
Posts: 122
WHO's additional cases from their 9/7 data of 4366 to today's release of 9/13 data of 4963 cases declares an increase of 597 cases over the 6 days, which averages 100 new cases per day, and would DOUBLE the 4963 to 10,000 cases in 51 days, except that WHO has omitted the 4 days 9/10-11-12 and 13 of new cases from the fastest growing country Liberia, which means 457+/- Liberian cases should be added in to obtain a more indicative WHO 3 country 9/13 total of 5420 cases.

Cases for this 'normalized' 6 day period 9/7 to 9/13 will approximate 1054, divided by 6 days, giving a more realistic average daily new case number of 176 per day: WHO's understated 4963 cases would DOUBLE to almost 10,000 in 28 days (from 9/13) by Oct. 11, while the adjusted 5420 cases including Liberia would reach 10,000 in 26 days by Oct. 9th. These trends and doubling period continuing might suggest 20,000 cases within 49 days by Nov. 3rd., in line with the more rapid infection rate and the lower 15 day case-doubling period forecast recently by Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research.

For some reason WHO's footnote from today's roadmap will not copy, where it states the omission of the 4 Liberian days 9/10-13 beneath TABLE 1, but the exact wording is as follows:

"Data for Liberia are based on reported cases up to the end of 9 September 2014. Data reported are based on official information reported by Ministries of Health."

Official Liberian MOH information for 2 of the WHO-omitted days 9/10-11 has been available since yesterday 9/15 at the MOHsw site, and what reason there is for WHO to not include at least the 2 official reports already released, totaling 179 new cases, while declaring the 3 country 6 day new case increase of only 597 cases, is beyond me:

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.in ... sept14.pdf

http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/documents/Liber ... 202014.pdf

http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/documents/Liber ... 202014.pdf

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