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PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:05 pm 
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WHO has issued a new Ebola update taking fake CRs to the extreme (fake number down to 50% as number of immortal hospitalized cases increase).

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_09_04_ebola/en/

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:06 pm 
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Ebola virus disease outbreak – west Africa


Disease outbreak news
4 September 2014

Epidemiology and surveillance

WHO has committed to provide regular situation reports that include detailed epidemiological information and analysis, as well as regular monitoring of the national and international response to the outbreak against the Ebola response roadmap.

Recognizing the demand for updated numbers from this outbreak, the following information is being released in advance of the second update of this situation report.

As of 31 August 2014, 3685 (probable, confirmed and suspected) cases and 1841 deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease by the Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

In Nigeria, there have been 21 cases and 7 deaths.

In Senegal, one case has been confirmed and there have been no Ebola deaths or further suspected cases.

Data reported in the Disease Outbreak News are based on official information reported by Ministries of Health. These numbers are subject to change due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation and availability of laboratory results.

Widespread and intense transmission as at 31 August 2014


Country Case definition Total Total (deaths) Case fatality rate (%)

Guinea Confirmed 579 343 59
Probable 150 149 99
Suspected 42 2 5
All 771 494 64
Liberia Confirmed 403 271 67
Probable 815 373 46
Suspected 480 227 47
All 1698 871 51
Sierra Leone Confirmed 1107 430 39
Probable 37 34 92
Suspected 72 12 17
All 1216 476 39
All All 3685 1841 50



Initial case(s) and localized transmission as at 31 August 2014


Country Case definition Total Total deaths Case fatality rate (%)

Nigeria Confirmed 16 6 37.5
Probable 1 1 100
Suspected 4 0 0
All 21 7 33.3
Senegal Confirmed 1 0 0
Probable 0 0 0
Suspected 0 0 0
All 1 0 0
All All 22 7 31.8

Note: A separate outbreak of Ebola virus disease, which is not related to the outbreak in west Africa, was laboratory-confirmed on 26 August by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Information on this outbreak is provided in separate editions of the Disease Outbreak News.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:17 pm 
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I'm curious what the CFR would be is everyone actually had good hospital care. If we look at Nigeria, We have 7 fatalities with 8 discharged doesn't that give a CFR of 46.6%?

Granted this is a very small sample. Am I wrong in assuming these patients are probably still not getting the quality of care they would receive in say the United States? The numbers might also be slightly skewed as most of the people infected in Nigeria would probably be considered healthy no old, infirm, or young in the sample.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:34 pm 
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alforddm wrote:
I'm curious what the CFR would be is everyone actually had good hospital care. If we look at Nigeria, We have 7 fatalities with 8 discharged doesn't that give a CFR of 46.6%?

Granted this is a very small sample. Am I wrong in assuming these patients are probably still not getting the quality of care they would receive in say the United States? The numbers might also be slightly skewed as most of the people infected in Nigeria would probably be considered healthy no old, infirm, or young in the sample.

Ebola outcomes are driven by dose. In Lagos the four with the most contact with Patrick Sawyer (2 nurses, 1 doctor, 1 liaison) all died, as did closest contact to index in Port Harcourt. All four close contacts in Lagos were identified early, treated by same hospital, but still died.

In ZMapp experiment all three untreated NHP's died within 8 days (4, 8, 8 days), but all 18 treated with ZMapp (at days 3,4,5 after infection) survived. Massive interventions can overcome lethal dose, but palliative care would be considerably less successful.

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