Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Do you give it a chance for viewers to see the link to the source of such information, to make decision this association is valid or not?

This sound like official

and this is an assumption

The links work and the underlying data are available. The map data are VERY straightforward.

FYI, WHO also said

Work will initially begin in Lviv region, where reported numbers of cases showing severe manifestations of acute respiratory illness have been especially high. Two virologists on the team have started working at the National Influenza Centre and the laboratories of the Central Sanitary and Epidemiological Station in Kyiv to provide diagnostic support.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

And the map makes the identical assumption. The influenza and ARI cases are probable H1N1 which is OBVIOUS based on the numbers presented and associated deaths. The interpretation reallly is a no brainer. H1N1 has been around for awhile, and the associated presentations are well known. The influenza and ARI cases in Ukraine are classic swine flu, although the frequency of deaths is on the high side (which is why there is so much concern).

The map represents the real situation, not a few token confirmatory tests by governments seeking to limit H1N1 cases by limiting testing.

15 confimed patients and 15,000 hospitalized is a joke (and designed to mislead).

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www.twitter.com/hniman

It's an official statement from the World Health Organization for goodness sake. If you want to continue the argument then take it up with the WHO.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_03/en/index.html

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Ukraine - update 1

3 November 2009 -- According to the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the country has now recorded more than 250 000 cases of influenza-like illness, with 235 patients requiring intensive care. As of 2 November, 70 deaths from acute respiratory illness have been reported.

Regions in western Ukraine continue to show the highest rates of acute respiratory illness/influenza-like illness. The level of activity in the Kyiv area is also increasing rapidly.

Laboratory testing in Ukraine has confirmed pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in samples taken from patients in two of the most affected regions. As the pandemic virus has rapidly become the dominant influenza strain worldwide, it can be assumed that most cases of influenza in Ukraine are caused by the H1N1 virus.

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As has been explained this is based on sound science good enough for the top experts in the world.

This is the same information, as in previous post. Please do not get so emotional.

I have transferred your information in the same way as it is described in map, to my colleagues. That there is 104000 confirmed/probable cases of H1N1 in Lviv, and was laughed at. Then I had to explain the same: That this is for Lviv region, not for Lviv only, that this is number of cases for Influenza, ARI and other illnesses, and that the rest is only a assumption. Then it was taken as probable.
How I can communicate more clearly that this information given in this way in misleading.

And yes, as far as I remember, you, Hogweed, agreed with me for the fact, that the figure in a map is for the Lviv region, not for the Lviv itself. I also remember you have said that because I am so confrontational, this would not be changed by map makers. You are right. It is not changed.

Here is a point for your laughing colleagues. WHO was stated that the influenza cases are H1N1. Ukraine is making statement that there are only 15 confirmed H1N1 case in the entire country, yet the offical govenment table shows 19,189 influenza cases, as in over 19,000 H1N1 plus the ARI cases (which are alos predominantly H1N1).
I believe the Ukranian government, or at least the politicians and reporters who are talking about 15 H1N1 cases, need to work or their communication skills.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

You know I have a point, that's why you are quoting but then giving no answers to questions.

Here is an extract of an official Ukranian Health Ministry statement that should make things clear. Note how they point out that about 40-50 thousand is typical for the number of flu/ARI cases at this time of year nationwide but this year it has jumped to 250 thousand just in the last couple of weeks. Prior to that it was still about the seasonal norm level this year.

http://www.moz.gov.ua/ua/main/press/?docID=13975

Google Translated link http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... ndows-1251


03 листопада 2009, the Supreme Council of Ukraine considered the issue of poverty in the state of the epidemic of influenza A (H1N1). Given that the Minister of Health of Ukraine Vasyl Knyazevich not had occasion to inform the parliament about the situation in the medical field, and, given the large number of pressing issues, the answers to what society expects, the press service of Ukraine Ministry of Health provides the text of the report of the Minister, prepared speech the Supreme Council of Ukraine 03.11.09.

Dear Vladimir,
Dear people deputies!

Before starting his speech, would recall: epidemiology laws have nothing to do with the laws of politics, viruses do not care which political party in power, but the disease is not treated the opposition criticism.

I hope that today we will talk not about politics, society and give clear signals that the state is able to confront challenges such as epidemic.

Now the situation directly with the incidence of influenza A (H1N1)

Recalled June 11, 2009 WHO announced 6 th phase of a pandemic influenza A (H1N1). This means that the virus has caused outbreaks of influenza in long-term population of at least two countries in a WHO region and one country in the world.

In today's world, more than 440 thousand of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza А/H1N1 California, including nearly 5.5 thousand cases ended by death. I draw your attention to the fact that the laboratory confirmed cases are not 100% married to screen all patients, but a sample that is used in epidemiology as a method.

More than 90 countries recorded deaths, the largest number of deaths, as of October 2009, recorded in Brazil - 899, USA - 593 Argentina - 538, India - 315, Mexico - 231.

As at 22 June 2 November in Ukraine influenza and ARI recorded 255 thousand 516 patients, 71 died on the person, including adults - 66, 3 children, 2 pregnant women. The most difficult situation is in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil region.

What is influenza A (H1N1) differs from other types of flu? Notes - for the clinical features is no different. Their symptoms are similar and identical to any food poisoning, ozone depleting substances. By essentially different in that no one no immunity to it, because the virus is completely new, not fully understood, no one knows thereby worsening clinical picture, and how this fight.

I would like to note that it is unusual and that treating it began in the summer, severe disease was small. Therefore experience in treating such patients in the world is also not enough.

A characteristic feature of the disease is rapid development of severe cases that manifested as pneumonia instant when people die before the fifth day, or when people die at 7-8 day from pneumonia stratification of bacterial infection.

Is there a unique situation in Ukraine? I emphasize that - No! Global statistics show that in the world accounted for one third of deaths from pneumonia, complicated bacterial infections, and two-thirds - to death from viral pneumonia. Such patients are very difficult to resuscitation, it is difficult to choose the mode of artificial ventilation, they require a lot of attention in the intensive care department from both the doctors and of nurses.

Very often I ask: How can a simple sector doctor to determine - whether it is the common cold, flu or California?

Notes - a doctor and should not do it. In the state clearly defined epidsytuatsiya, A/H1N1 virus circulating in the territory of Ukraine, and do not need to prove it every time again and again. This fall, traditionally attended by several viruses, but is fixed mainly two types - normal seasonal type A and California A/H1N1. Each of these types can cause very serious complications. So the doctor should not try to distinguish between them, it must be guided by clear clinical manifestations of the patient. If the patient has severe symptoms, it is treated at home and uses the standard drugs, as with colds. If severe (very high fever, chest pain, shortness of breath) - urgently hospitalizuyetsya.

From experience, we already have today, doctors emphasize that the disease affects primarily young working-age population. Age most of the dead is from 20 to 45 years. Unfortunately, even the fact that today people are more actively seeking help in hospital, mortality is very high, the situation remains difficult. Explanations that do not, including in international experts, because there is, as noted earlier, experience in medical practice.

Characteristic is the fact that the course of disease is complicated in the case of a patient obesity, diabetes, respiratory diseases, other severe chronic diseases.

Unfortunately, we have today and the cases of destruction of pregnant women, killing the fetus and in 2 cases - the mother.

As already indicated, the virus quickly spreads through Ukraine. Cases recorded in Vinnytsia, Khmelnytsky, Transcarpathian, Rivne. Quarantine implemented in 9 provinces.

Comparative analysis epidsytuatsiyi in Ukraine in the past and in 2009 shows:

At the 42nd week in 2008 and is 12-19 in October - the number of patients in Ukraine amounted to 45 517 people. For the same period in 2009 - 45 thousand 177 persons.

At the 43rd week in 2008, ie, 20-26 October 2008 - the number of patients was 42 thousand 713 persons, and last week this year - 48 thousand 909 persons.

As we see, the problem today - not only in quantitative growth of viral diseases, but that doctors are dealing with a new virus from which people are dying and medicine is so helpless.

I would like to emphasize, ladies and gentlemen deputies: the situation is really complicated, but the mood that nahnitayutsya only worsen it.

...CUT...

Sixth. Finally. Dear members, I assure you: the Ministry of Health has never hidden and will not conceal information about the situation in the country. All allegations of concealment of deaths - libel.

Unlike politicians, doctors work based on the principles of Evidence, therefore, the results of laboratory tests, we had no legal or moral right to declare the epidemic in the country. Fruit and viruses can not grow quickly at the request of one or another political force. So to finish the report, which also started: epidemiology laws have nothing to do with the laws of politics, viruses do not care which political party in power, but the disease is not treated the opposition criticism.

Thank you.

Press Service of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine

"This fall, traditionally attended by several viruses, but is fixed mainly two types - normal seasonal type A and California A/H1N1. Each of these types can cause very serious complications. So the doctor should not try to distinguish between them, it must be guided by clear clinical manifestations of the patient."

So now you can see that there is a seasonal type virus. And that probably some people do not suffer from A/H1N1, but from seasonal type A. I am not saying this is true. This is what just Minister of Health of Ukraine says.

"At the 42nd week in 2008 and is 12-19 in October - the number of patients in Ukraine amounted to 45 517 people. For the same period in 2009 - 45 thousand 177 persons.

At the 43rd week in 2008, ie, 20-26 October 2008 - the number of patients was 42 thousand 713 persons, and last week this year - 48 thousand 909 persons."

And this is a comparison of number of patient in previous year and this one. You can see that unfortunately previous year quantity of patients was also pretty high. It occurs that this year quantity of patients as for now is bigger for appr. 5000 patients.

"As at 22 June 2 November in Ukraine influenza and ARI recorded 255 thousand 516 patients, 71 died on the person, including adults - 66, 3 children, 2 pregnant women. The most difficult situation is in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil region."

And this is a fact, that Minister states. Note: it does not says 255 thousand patients ill from A/H1N1.

As for the last quoted chapter:
"Sixth. Finally. Dear members, I assure you: the Ministry of Health has never hidden and will not conceal information about the situation in the country. All allegations of concealment of deaths - libel."
You have doubted the information from Ukrainian Health Ministry from the very beginning. I can't see a point why you quote that.